Take-Two just gave us our most credible update yet
The mere mention of a Grand Theft Auto 6 release date might cause your ears to perk up. It’s a game that hasn’t even been officially announced, though that hasn’t stopped speculation about its existence for several years. Based on a recent financial report from publisher Take-Two Interactive, analysts predict GTA 6 could finally launch in the next couple of years. But why are analysts so sure?
A Take-Two report points to a GTA 6 release window
GTA 6 hasn’t been revealed yet, but it’s possible it will launch sometime in 2024 or early 2025.
On January 10, 2022, Take-Two announced it had plans to purchase mobile gaming developer-publisher Zynga for $12.7 billion. As part of that report, the company also revealed it expects to compound annual revenue growth to the tune of 14 percent through 2024. More plainly, Take-Two expects to earn a lot of money in the next two years or so.
There are only a handful of titles that can … provide management with the confidence to put out such a strong guidance; we believe there is at least one Rockstar IP set to be released by FY24.
For context, GTA V sold 32 million copies in 2013 alone, according to the Independent, and went on to reach over 155 million copies sold as of November 2021, as reported by GameSpot. In short, GTA is a massive franchise.
Axios also spoke with analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen, who estimates the 14 percent forecast is equal to around $9 billion, which is in line with a major release such as GTA 6.
As Axios notes, this wouldn’t be the first time Take-Two alluded to the release of its next GTA game as part of a financial report. In 2011, the company forecasted significant growth throughout 2012 and 2013. GTA V was released in September 2013, though it was originally scheduled for much sooner.
In regards to this, Creutz told Axios “there absolutely is precedent for putting a Rockstar game into numbers before it’s officially dated (and then getting it wrong).”
It’s worth noting, Take-Two expects this 14 percent boost regardless of the Zynga acquisition. Take-Two “signaled a big increase by FY24 — and said it was without including ‘revenue synergies,’” Stephen Totilo of Axios said.
This release window lines up with previous predictions
Even before this Take-Two report, analysts, industry insiders, and journalists have predicted GTA 6 will launch in 2024.
In 2021, industry insider Tom Henderson — who has a positive track record in the video game space — said, “I’d openly bet anyone that claims to have ‘insider information’ $1000 that [GTA 6] will release 2024-2025.”
Jason Schreier of Bloomberg corroborated Henderson’s claims by saying, “everything Tom Henderson has said about the game matches up with what I’ve heard.”
Rockstar Games used to be a company that would crank out projects frequently. Between 1999 and 2006, it wasn’t unusual for Rockstar to develop or publish a few games annually. Since 2008, however, that number dwindled, and with the launch of GTA V in 2013, the company has placed most of its eggs in a couple of baskets: Grand Theft Auto and Red Dead Redemption.
It’s possible Rockstar has other projects in the works, but given just how much publisher Take-Two expects to earn in 2024, it’s safe to assume that’s the current targeted GTA 6 release window.
Assuming it does launch in 2024, we can expect to hear about it from Rockstar in 2023, if history is any indication. Rockstar Games tends to launch an announcement trailer for its next GTA game the year before release, so we imagine it will remain consistent going forward.